Geopolitical risk rarely remains confined to a headline. Trade restrictions can change supply chains, energy relationships and investment incentives. The effects often emerge over different time horizons.
An analytical framework separates the direct shock from the second-order consequences. Which channels transmit the change? What evidence would confirm the impact? Which assumptions remain uncertain?
Scenario analysis does not claim to forecast a single outcome. It gives decision-makers a disciplined way to consider competing possibilities and monitor whether the evidence is changing.